The holiday plan starts from what each toy costs to land.
Nearly 80% of toys sold in the US are made in China, according to the Toy Association, and the duties on them changed several times in 2025 and again in 2026. A Black Friday discount planned on last year's cost can wipe out the profit on a toy. So the plan starts with the landed cost of each toy: the factory price, the freight and the duty you pay today. That decides which toys lead the ads, which go into bundles and which stay at full price.
Then the calendar works back from the day the stock lands. Ads are tested in late summer, while clicks cost less, on toys that are already in the warehouse. The email list grows before November, and the last shipping dates go on the site and in every email. When the rush starts, the budget goes behind the toys with the most profit left after ads. To make the same profit, a discount needs margin ÷ (margin − discount) times as many orders, and the discount calculator works it out for each toy.
- A landed cost for every toy, with the duty you pay today
- Discounts only on toys whose margin can take them
- Ads and emails timed to when the stock lands