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Abandoned cart calculator

Estimate what abandoned cart emails and texts could win back each month in orders, revenue and profit, with a cautious and an optimistic case. Nothing you enter leaves your browser.

Your abandoned checkouts

In Shopify: Orders → Abandoned checkouts. Count the last 30 days.

Usually close to your average order value.

Shoppers who agreed to hear from you by email or text.

What each order keeps after product, shipping, fees and returns. Not sure? Work it out with the break-even ROAS calculator.

Recovery rate: orders from shoppers you message

Close to the average in Klaviyo's benchmarks.

Close to the top 10% of brands.

Leave at 0 if you don't offer one.

Left in abandoned checkouts

$80,000a month

Reminders to the 640 shoppers you can message could win back $1,920 to $4,800 a month.

Cautious

3% recovery
$1,920
in revenue a month
Orders
19
Profit
$803

Optimistic

7.5% recovery
$4,800
in revenue a month
Orders
48
Profit
$2,006

Over a year, that's $9,631 to $24,077 in profit.

The month at other recovery rates

Orders, revenue and profit won back each month at different recovery rates, with your cautious and optimistic rates marked.
RecoveryOrdersRevenueProfit
2%13$1,280$535
3%19$1,920$803
5%32$3,200$1,338
7.5%48$4,800$2,006
10%64$6,400$2,675

Winning back 1% more of the shoppers you message adds $268 in profit a month.

Book a strategy call

Want more of those carts back? 30 minutes with Dair, the founder.

THE MATH

How to work out what abandoned carts could win back

Most abandoned checkouts are gone for good, but a share of shoppers come back when you remind them. About 70% of online carts are abandoned, according to the Baymard Institute's average of 50 studies, and many of those shoppers were only browsing. So plan with the shoppers you can actually message and a realistic recovery rate, not the full amount left in carts.

Shoppers you can message = abandoned checkouts × share you can message
Orders won back = shoppers you can message × recovery rate
Profit won back = orders won back × (checkout value × margin − discount)
Worked example

The cautious case, with the numbers already in the calculator above.

Abandoned checkouts
800
Shoppers you can message (80%)
640
Orders won back (3%)
19.2
Revenue
19.2 × $100.00 = $1,920.00
Profit (41.8%)
$802.56
Cautious, a month$802.56 profit
Optimistic (7.5%)48 orders = $2,006.40 profit
WHAT WORKS

Win back more carts without giving away margin

Reminders win back some carts. Fixing why shoppers leave, like surprise shipping costs, saves even more: see the 4 places Shopify stores lose sales.

Send the first reminder within an hour

Shoppers forget quickly. Send a simple reminder with a photo of what they left within the first hour, then follow up the next day with reviews and answers to common questions.

Save the discount for last

A discount in the first message gives margin away to shoppers who would have paid full price. If your margins allow one, offer it in the last reminder only, and check what it costs with the discount field above.

Add texts for shoppers who opted in

Texts get read fast, which suits reminders, as long as the shopper agreed to them. See the 5 email flows every Shopify store should have running, or how we run email and SMS.

FAQ

Questions about abandoned carts.

Don't see your question? Ask Dair directly on the call.

Dair Rose
Still have a question?
Email or call. Dair replies personally.
Book a strategy call →

In your Shopify admin, go to Orders, then Abandoned checkouts. It lists the checkouts where a shopper entered their contact details but did not pay, and shows which ones were recovered. Count the last 30 days for this calculator.

Klaviyo's 2024 benchmarks, from more than 143,000 abandoned cart flows, found that 3.33% of the people who received one went on to order, and 7.69% for the top 10% of brands. Some of those shoppers would have come back anyway, so plan with the cautious case.

About 70%, according to the Baymard Institute's average of 50 studies. Many of those shoppers were only browsing or comparing prices, which is why no reminder brings all of them back.

An abandoned cart is when a shopper adds something to their cart and leaves. An abandoned checkout is when they start checking out, usually entering an email or phone number, and leave before paying. Shopify lists abandoned checkouts. Email platforms like Klaviyo can also follow up on carts, as long as they know who the shopper is.

Not in the first message. Many shoppers come back after a simple reminder, and a discount up front gives margin away to people who would have paid full price. If your margins allow it, save a small incentive for the last message.

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Want more of those carts back?

Book a 30-minute call with Dair. We'll look at your abandoned checkouts and the emails and texts that would win more of them back.